New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 17
22 July 2006Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 9.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Piri Weepu-4.9
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Scott Hamilton
- 12Sam Tuitupou
- 13Mils Muliaina
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Leon MacDonald+1.6
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Greg Somerville+6.5
- 18Greg Rawlinson
- 19Chris Masoe
- 20Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 21Luke McAlister
- 22Isaia Toeava+11.9
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 4Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Solly Tyibilika
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Jacques Cronje
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Danie Coetzee
- 17Eddie Andrews
- 18Johann Muller+4.2
- 19Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 20Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 21Meyer Bosman
- 22JP Pietersen+0.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 7 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.