Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 9
10 February 2007Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 2.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.4 mm
- Wind
- 35 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Gavin Kerr
- 2Dougie Hall-1.1
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 5Scott Murray
- 6Simon Taylor
- 7Kelly Brown+3.1
- 8David Callam
- 9Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 10Phil Godman
- 11Chris Paterson(c)+1.8
- 12Rob Dewey
- 13Marcus di Rollo
- 14Sean Lamont+5.6
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Ally Hogg
- 20Rory Lawson-3.0
- 21Simon Webster+9.7
- 22Nikki Walker
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2T.Rhys Thomas
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Robert Sidoli
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Alix Popham+1.5
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Ryan Jones+7.9
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones(c)+0.2
- 11Chris Czekaj
- 12James Hook-12.6
- 13Jamie Robinson
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Kevin Morgan+4.7
Replacements
- 16Matthew Rees-8.1
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Ian Gough-3.3
- 19Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 20Mike Phillips
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Tom Shanklin+12.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.