France v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 21
24 February 2007Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Wales
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 10.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.2 mm
- Wind
- 28 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 2Raphael Ibanez(c)-4.5
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Elvis Vermeulen
- 9Pierre Mignoni-1.1
- 10David Skrela
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13David Marty+6.7
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Benoit August
- 17Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 18Gregory Lamboley
- 19Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 20Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 21Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 22Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Chris Horsman
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Alix Popham+1.5
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Ryan Jones+7.9
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones(c)+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12James Hook-12.6
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16T.Rhys Thomas
- 17Duncan Jones+0.8
- 18Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 19Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 20Mike Phillips
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Jamie Robinson
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.