New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 6
14 July 2007Jade Stadium (Lancaster Park), Christchurch
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 5 m
- Temperature
- 4.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-43.54194,172.65417 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 23 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Keith Robinson
- 6Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Piri Weepu-4.9
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Luke McAlister
- 13Isaia Toeava+11.9
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 18Jerry Collins
- 19Chris Masoe
- 20Brendon Leonard
- 21Conrad Smith+4.0
- 22Nick Evans
South Africa
- 1CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 5Johann Muller(c)+4.2
- 6Wikus van Heerden
- 7Pedrie Wannenburg
- 8Jacques Cronje
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Derick Hougaard
- 11Jaco Pretorius
- 12Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 13Waylon Murray
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15JP Pietersen+0.8
Replacements
- 16Gary Botha
- 17Eddie Andrews
- 18Gerrie Britz
- 19Hilton Lobberts
- 20Michael Claassens
- 21Peter Grant
- 22Tonderai Chavhanga
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.