Scotland v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
0 – 40
23 September 2007Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 15.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Scott Lawson-0.4
- 3Craig Smith
- 4Scott Macleod
- 5Scott Murray(c)
- 6Kelly Brown+3.1
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8David Callam
- 9Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 10Chris Paterson+1.8
- 11Simon Webster+9.7
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13Marcus di Rollo
- 14Nikki Walker
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Fergus Thomson
- 17Gavin Kerr
- 18Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 19Ally Hogg
- 20Rory Lawson-3.0
- 21Dan Parks+4.1
- 22Rob Dewey
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Chris Masoe
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 12Luke McAlister
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Leon MacDonald+1.6
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 18Chris Jack
- 19Sione Lauaki
- 20Brendon Leonard
- 21Nick Evans
- 22Isaia Toeava+11.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 37.0% | Possession | 63.0% |
| 25.0% | Territory | 75.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 204m | Carry metres | 807m |
| 6 | Defenders beaten | 19 |
| 3 | Offloads | 15 |
| 65 | Passes | 123 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 119 | Tackles made | 89 |
| 19 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | Lineout success | — |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 15 | Scrums won | 18 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 55 | Rucks won | 87 |
| — | Mauls won | 3 |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 13 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 6 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.