England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 26
2 February 2008Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 2.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Mark Regan+1.8
- 3Phil Vickery(c)+2.7
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Lewis Moody+1.4
- 8Luke Narraway
- 9Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11David Strettle
- 12Toby Flood-1.2
- 13Mike Tindall+3.5
- 14Paul Sackey
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16Lee Mears+2.3
- 17Matt Stevens-0.0
- 18Ben Kay+9.1
- 19Tom Rees
- 20Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 21Danny Cipriani
- 22Lesley Vainikolo
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2Huw Bennett+2.9
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10James Hook-12.6
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Gavin Henson+4.0
- 13Sonny Parker
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Matthew Rees-8.1
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Ian Evans+5.6
- 19Alix Popham+1.5
- 20Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 21Stephen Jones+0.2
- 22Tom Shanklin+12.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.