Ireland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 16
8 March 2008Croke Park, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 13:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 8.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.4 mm
- Wind
- 34 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Rory Best
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Denis Leamy+5.0
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 12Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Bernard Jackman
- 17Tony Buckley
- 18Mick O'Driscoll
- 19Simon Easterby-7.8
- 20Peter Stringer+11.4
- 21Paddy Wallace
- 22Luke Fitzgerald-5.3
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Gavin Henson+4.0
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Gareth Williams
- 17Duncan Jones+0.8
- 18Ian Evans+5.6
- 19Gareth Delve
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21James Hook-12.6
- 22Sonny Parker
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.