Ireland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 12
13 March 2010Croke Park, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 5.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Stephen Ferris
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Tomas O'Leary
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Tony Buckley
- 18Leo Cullen+1.0
- 19Shane Jennings
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21Ronan O'Gara
- 22Rob Kearney+2.0
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Luke Charteris+2.1
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Martyn Williams(c)+5.7
- 8Gareth Delve
- 9Richie Rees
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13James Hook-12.6
- 14Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17Rhys Gill
- 18Ian Gough-3.3
- 19Sam Warburton
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Andrew Bishop
- 22Tom Shanklin+12.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.