New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 12
10 July 2010Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 7.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Tom Donnelly
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Corey Flynn
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 19Liam Messam+1.5
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 22Richard Kahui
South Africa
- 1Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Francois Louw+9.7
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 15Zane Kirchner
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17BJ Botha
- 18Andries Bekker+0.8
- 19Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 20Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 21Butch James+0.9
- 22Gio Aplon
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | — |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.