South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 29
21 August 2010FNB Stadium, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1695 m
- Temperature
- 11.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 40 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Flip van der Merwe+0.1
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Juan de Jongh-2.5
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Gio Aplon
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 18Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 19Francois Louw+9.7
- 20Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 21Butch James+0.9
- 22Wynand Olivier-9.2
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Ben Franks-1.5
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Tom Donnelly
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Corey Flynn
- 17John Afoa-1.5
- 18Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 19Victor Vito+4.4
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 22Israel Dagg-2.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.