Wales v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 26
4 February 2011Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v England
- Kick-off
- 19:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 9.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 45 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Matthew Rees(c)-8.1
- 3Craig Mitchell
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton
- 8Andy Powell
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 13Jamie Roberts
- 14Morgan Stoddart
- 15James Hook-12.6
Replacements
- 16Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 17John Yapp+5.6
- 18Ryan Jones+7.9
- 19Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 22Lee Byrne+0.7
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Louis Deacon-1.1
- 5Tom Palmer+2.1
- 6Tom Wood+0.3
- 7James Haskell+0.9
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Toby Flood-1.2
- 11Mark Cueto+0.8
- 12Shontayne Hape
- 13Mike Tindall(c)+3.5
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Ben Foden
Replacements
- 16Steve Thompson+3.2
- 17David Wilson+7.0
- 18Simon Shaw-2.6
- 19Joe Worsley+4.0
- 20Danny Care+3.0
- 21Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 22Matt Banahan
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.