South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 5
20 August 2011Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 16 m
- Temperature
- 13.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-33.93779,25.59941 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield(c)-1.4
- 6Heinrich Brussow+4.9
- 7Willem Alberts+10.1
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Patrick Lambie+6.5
Replacements
- 16John Smit+6.0
- 17Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 18CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 19Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 20Ashley Johnson
- 21Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 22Butch James+0.9
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu(c)+2.6
- 3John Afoa-1.5
- 4Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Adam Thomson+2.1
- 8Liam Messam+1.5
- 9Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 10Colin Slade+2.9
- 11Hosea Gear
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Richard Kahui
- 14Isaia Toeava+11.9
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Jarrad Hoeata
- 19Victor Vito+4.4
- 20Andrew Ellis
- 21Piri Weepu-4.9
- 22Cory Jane-1.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.