England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 19
25 February 2012Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 6.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Alex Corbisiero
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Mouritz Botha
- 5Geoff Parling-5.6
- 6Tom Croft-2.9
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Ben Morgan
- 9Lee Dickson
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11David Strettle
- 12Brad Barritt-4.9
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Ben Foden
Replacements
- 16Rob Webber
- 17Matt Stevens-0.0
- 18Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 19Phil Dowson
- 20Ben Youngs+2.3
- 21Toby Flood-1.2
- 22Mike Brown
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 5Ian Evans+5.6
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Ryan Jones+7.9
- 19Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 20Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 21Stephen Jones+0.2
- 22Scott Williams+3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.