New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 11
15 September 2012Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 32 m
- Temperature
- 7.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Luke Romano+1.2
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Liam Messam+1.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Piri Weepu-4.9
- 10Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Charlie Faumuina
- 18Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 19Victor Vito+4.4
- 20Aaron Smith-4.6
- 21Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 22Tamati Ellison
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Flip van der Merwe+0.1
- 5Juandre Kruger
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Willem Alberts+10.1
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 12Francois Steyn+7.8
- 13Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 14Bryan Habana+1.1
- 15Zane Kirchner
Replacements
- 16Tiaan Liebenberg
- 17Dean Greyling
- 18Andries Bekker+0.8
- 19Marcell Coetzee-4.4
- 20Johan Goosen
- 21Juan de Jongh-2.5
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.