South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 32
6 October 2012FNB Stadium, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1695 m
- Temperature
- 22.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Andries Bekker+0.8
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Willem Alberts+10.1
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Johan Goosen
- 11Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 12Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 13Jaco Taute
- 14Bryan Habana+1.1
- 15Zane Kirchner
Replacements
- 16Tiaan Liebenberg
- 17Coenie Oosthuizen
- 18Flip van der Merwe+0.1
- 19Marcell Coetzee-4.4
- 20Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 21Juan de Jongh-2.5
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Liam Messam+1.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Hosea Gear
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Luke Romano+1.2
- 19Adam Thomson+2.1
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 22Tamati Ellison
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.