South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 38
5 October 2013Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 20.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Juandre Kruger
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Willem Alberts+10.1
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 13JJ Engelbrecht
- 14Willie le Roux+4.6
- 15Zane Kirchner
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 18Coenie Oosthuizen
- 19Franco van der Merwe
- 20Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 21Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Jan Serfontein+12.9
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Charlie Faumuina
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Liam Messam+1.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Ben Franks-1.5
- 19Steven Luatua
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21Tawera Kerr-Barlow+2.6
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Charles Piutau
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 5 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.