Wales v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 16
14 March 2015Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 4.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Rhys Webb+1.9
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Liam Williams+7.7
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 17Rob Evans+7.5
- 18Aaron Jarvis
- 19Jake Ball+1.0
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Mike Phillips
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23Scott Williams+3.8
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Devin Toner+4.4
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Simon Zebo-1.2
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Jared Payne
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Marty Moore
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Jordi Murphy
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Felix Jones
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.