Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 61
21 March 2015Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 12:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 9.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Michele Rizzo
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini(c)-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4George Biagi
- 5Joshua Furno
- 6Francesco Minto
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Samu Vunisa
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Kelly Haimona
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Andrea Masi-5.0
- 13Luca Morisi+0.0
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Aaron Jarvis
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Rhys Webb+1.9
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Liam Williams+7.7
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Rhys Gill
- 18Scott Andrews
- 19Jake Ball+1.0
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23Scott Williams+3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 8 |
| 2 | Conversions | 6 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.