Australia v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 6
10 October 2015Allianz Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about Australia v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 12.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 40 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Stephen Moore(c)+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Kane Douglas-3.4
- 5Dean Mumm+2.1
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Sean McMahon+6.7
- 8David Pocock+0.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Greg Holmes+9.7
- 19Rob Simmons-1.5
- 20Ben McCalman+5.9
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Kurtley Beale+3.5
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Sam Warburton(c)
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Liam Williams+7.7
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Gareth Anscombe+3.7
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Aaron Jarvis
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Jake Ball+1.0
- 20Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23James Hook-12.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 40.0% | Possession | 60.0% |
| 37.0% | Territory | 63.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 221m | Carry metres | 289m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 15 | Defenders beaten | 11 |
| 5 | Offloads | 6 |
| 114 | Passes | 123 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 134 | Tackles made | 84 |
| 92.0% | Tackle success | 85.0% |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 78.6% | Lineout success | 88.9% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 52 | Rucks won | 77 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kicks from hand | 28 |
| 375m | Kick metres | 264m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 2 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.