New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 17
31 October 2015Allianz Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 11.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 41 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Nehe Milner-Skudder
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Charlie Faumuina
- 19Victor Vito+4.4
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21Tawera Kerr-Barlow+2.6
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Stephen Moore(c)+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Kane Douglas-3.4
- 5Rob Simmons-1.5
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8David Pocock+0.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Greg Holmes+9.7
- 19Dean Mumm+2.1
- 20Ben McCalman+5.9
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Kurtley Beale+3.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | Possession | 47.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 513m | Carry metres | 425m |
| 19 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 27 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 8 | Offloads | 2 |
| 151 | Passes | 139 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 114 | Tackles made | 117 |
| 88.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 27 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 70.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 3 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 83 | Rucks won | 79 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Kicks from hand | 38 |
| 599m | Kick metres | 445m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.