Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 25
19 March 2016Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 5.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 5Devin Toner+4.4
- 6CJ Stander
- 7Tommy O'Donnell
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Jared Payne
- 14Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 15Simon Zebo-1.2
Replacements
- 16Richardt Strauss
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Nathan White
- 19Ultan Dillane
- 20Rhys Ruddock
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Fergus McFadden+2.9
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Tim Swinson
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7John Hardie
- 8Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Duncan Weir-1.7
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 13Duncan Taylor
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Moray Low-1.2
- 19Rob Harley
- 20Josh Strauss+6.2
- 21Henry Pyrgos
- 22Peter Horne+2.1
- 23Sean Lamont+5.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.