Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
8 – 42
20 August 2016Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 11.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Kane Douglas-3.4
- 5Rob Simmons-1.5
- 6Ben McCalman+5.9
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8David Pocock+0.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Dean Mumm+2.1
- 20Scott Fardy
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Rob Horne-3.3
New Zealand
- 1Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Waisake Naholo
- 12Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 13Malakai Fekitoa
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17Kane Hames
- 18Charlie Faumuina
- 19Liam Squire
- 20Ardie Savea-6.0
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 23Julian Savea
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.