Ireland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 32
2 February 2019Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v England
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 1.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Devin Toner+4.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Robbie Henshaw-3.3
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Quinn Roux
- 20Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 21John Cooney
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Mark Wilson
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Jack Nowell+4.7
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Harry Williams
- 19Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 20Nathan Hughes
- 21Dan Robson
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Chris Ashton+3.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.