New Zealand v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
46 – 14
19 October 2019Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 10:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 66 m
- Temperature
- 19.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.2 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Ardie Savea-6.0
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read(c)-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11George Bridge
- 12Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 13Jack Goodhue
- 14Sevu Reece-4.1
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Angus Ta'avao
- 19Scott Barrett+2.6
- 20Matt Todd
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 23Jordie Barrett+6.6
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best(c)
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Niall Scannell
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 20Rhys Ruddock
- 21Luke McGrath
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 488m | Carry metres | 239m |
| 18 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 32 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 14 | Offloads | 3 |
| 185 | Passes | 144 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 145 | Tackles made | 147 |
| 92.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 32 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | Lineout success | — |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 6 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | Rucks won | 98 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 837m | Kick metres | 537m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.