England v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 22
26 October 2003Marvel Stadium, Melbourne · neutral venue
What the model says about England v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 10:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 21 m
- Temperature
- 9.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Mark Regan+1.8
- 3Julian White-1.4
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Stuart Abbott
- 14Iain Balshaw+8.5
- 15Jason Robinson+5.5
Replacements
- 16Steve Thompson+3.2
- 17Phil Vickery+2.7
- 18Martin Corry-6.2
- 19Lewis Moody+1.4
- 20Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 21Mike Catt+2.3
- 22Dan Luger-5.9
Samoa
- 1Kas Lealamanu'a
- 2Jon Meredith
- 3Jeremy Tomuli
- 4Opeta Palepoi
- 5Leo Lafaiali'i
- 6Peter Poulos
- 7Maurie Fa'asavalu
- 8Semo Sititi
- 9Steve So'oialo
- 10Earl Va'a
- 11Sailosi Tagicakibau
- 12Brian Lima
- 13Terry Fanolua
- 14Lome Fa'atau
- 15Tanner Vili
Replacements
- 16Mo Schwalger
- 17Simon Lemalu
- 18Kitiona Viliamu
- 19Des Tuiavi'i
- 20Denning Tyrell
- 21Dale Rasmussen
- 22Dom Feau'nati
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 80.0% | Possession | 20.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 547m | Carry metres | 322m |
| 11 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 26 | Defenders beaten | 28 |
| 10 | Offloads | 16 |
| 173 | Passes | 135 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 103 | Tackles made | 144 |
| 79.0% | Tackle success | 85.0% |
| 28 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 79.0% | Lineout success | 81.8% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 10 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 101 | Rucks won | 58 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kicks from hand | 15 |
| 462m | Kick metres | 439m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.