England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
46 – 12
4 March 2000Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 3.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Phil Greening
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Garath Archer
- 5Simon Shaw-2.6
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson(c)
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Catt+2.3
- 13Mike Tindall+3.5
- 14Austin Healey
- 15Matt Perry
Replacements
- 16Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 17Iain Balshaw+8.5
- 18Alex King
- 19Martin Corry-6.2
- 20Joe Worsley+4.0
- 21Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 22Neil McCarthy
Wales
- 1Peter Rogers
- 2Garin Jenkins
- 3Dai Young(c)
- 4Craig Quinnell
- 5Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Brett Sinkinson
- 8Scott Quinnell
- 9Rob Howley
- 10Neil Jenkins
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Mark Taylor+1.1
- 13Allan Bateman
- 14Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 15Shane Howarth
Replacements
- 16Barry Williams
- 17Spencer John
- 18Ian Gough-3.3
- 19Martyn Williams+5.7
- 20Richard Smith
- 21Matt Cardey
- 22Stephen Jones+0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.