Wales v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 44
3 February 2001Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v England
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 6.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.9 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 23 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Darren Morris
- 2Robin McBryde+4.3
- 3Dai Young(c)
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Scott Quinnell
- 9Rob Howley
- 10Neil Jenkins
- 11Dafydd James-9.4
- 12Scott Gibbs
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 15Stephen Jones+0.2
Replacements
- 16Andy Moore
- 17Mark Jones-1.6
- 18Spencer John
- 19Allan Bateman
- 20Rupert Moon
- 21Garin Jenkins
- 22Geraint Lewis
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Dorian West
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Dan Luger-5.9
- 12Mike Catt+2.3
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Ben Cohen
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16Austin Healey
- 17Matt Perry
- 18Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 19Martin Corry-6.2
- 20Mike Tindall+3.5
- 21Mark Regan+1.8
- 22Julian White-1.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.