England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 17
9 November 2003Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · neutral venue
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 20.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Lewis Moody+1.4
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Dan Luger-5.9
- 15Jason Robinson+5.5
Replacements
- 16Dorian West
- 17Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 18Simon Shaw-2.6
- 19Joe Worsley+4.0
- 20Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 21Mike Catt+2.3
- 22Stuart Abbott
Wales
- 1Iestyn Thomas
- 2Robin McBryde+4.3
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 7Colin Charvis(c)-5.3
- 8Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Iestyn Harris
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Gareth Thomas+5.9
Replacements
- 16Mefin Davies
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Gareth Llewellyn
- 19Martyn Williams+5.7
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Kevin Morgan+4.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 25.0% | Possession | 75.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 671m | Carry metres | 405m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 11 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 14 | Offloads | 15 |
| 165 | Passes | 122 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 72 | Tackles made | 177 |
| 85.0% | Tackle success | 90.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 11 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 71.4% | Lineout success | 81.3% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 10 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 121 | Rucks won | 49 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 917m | Kick metres | 956m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 13 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.