England v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 19
6 March 2004Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 6.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Richard Hill
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio(c)+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Paul Grayson+7.3
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Jason Robinson+5.5
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Josh Lewsey
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16Mark Regan+1.8
- 17Matt Stevens-0.0
- 18Chris Jones
- 19Neil Back
- 20Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 21Olly Barkley
- 22James Simpson-Daniel
Ireland
- 1Reggie Corrigan-1.6
- 2Shane Byrne
- 3John Hayes
- 4Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7Keith Gleeson
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Tyrone Howe
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 17Simon Best+5.9
- 18Gary Longwell
- 19Victor Costello-4.5
- 20Guy Easterby
- 21David Humphreys
- 22Kevin Maggs
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.