South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 26
23 June 2007Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 16.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2Gary Botha
- 3BJ Botha
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield(c)-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 8Bobby Skinstad+2.3
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11JP Pietersen+0.8
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Ashwin Willemse
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 18Johann Muller+4.2
- 19Pedrie Wannenburg
- 20Michael Claassens
- 21Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 22Francois Steyn+7.8
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Troy Flavell
- 5Greg Rawlinson
- 6Jerry Collins
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Isaia Toeava+11.9
- 14Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 18Ross Filipo
- 19Chris Masoe
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Luke McAlister
- 22Leon MacDonald+1.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.