South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 19
25 July 2009Toyota Stadium, Bloemfontein
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1382 m
- Temperature
- 4.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3John Smit(c)+6.0
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Heinrich Brussow+4.9
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Francois Steyn+7.8
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 18Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 19Ryan Kankowski
- 20Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 21Morne Steyn-3.6
- 22Wynand Olivier-9.2
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Isaac Ross
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Brendon Leonard
- 10Stephen Donald
- 11Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Owen Franks-0.8
- 18Jason Eaton
- 19Kieran Read-6.0
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Luke McAlister
- 22Cory Jane-1.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.