New Zealand v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 5
8 September 2012Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 11.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 14.1 mm
- Wind
- 50 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Luke Romano+1.2
- 5Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 6Victor Vito+4.4
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Charlie Faumuina
- 18Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 19Liam Messam+1.5
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 22Ben Smith-1.6
Argentina
- 1Rodrigo Roncero
- 2Eusebio Guinazu
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Manuel Carizza-12.9
- 5Patricio Albacete
- 6Julio Farias Cabello
- 7Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 8Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe(c)
- 9Nicolas Vergallo
- 10Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 11Horacio Agulla
- 12Santiago Fernandez
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Gonzalo Camacho
- 15Martin Rodriguez Gurruchage
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.