Argentina v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 54
29 September 2012Estadio Ciudad de La Plata, La Plata
What the model says about Argentina v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 23:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 15.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-34.91506,-57.98578 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Rodrigo Roncero
- 2Eusebio Guinazu
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Manuel Carizza-12.9
- 5Patricio Albacete
- 6Julio Farias Cabello
- 7Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 8Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe(c)
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 11Horacio Agulla
- 12Santiago Fernandez
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Gonzalo Camacho
- 15Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Juan Pablo Orlandi
- 18Tomas Vallejos Cinalli
- 19Tomas Leonardi
- 20Nicolas Vergallo
- 21Martin Rodriguez Gurruchage
- 22Juan Imhoff+8.0
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Luke Romano+1.2
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Liam Messam+1.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Charlie Faumuina
- 18Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 19Sam Cane+0.2
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 22Ben Smith-1.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 7 |
| 1 | Conversions | 5 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.