Argentina v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 33
28 September 2013Estadio Ciudad de La Plata, La Plata
What the model says about Argentina v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 22:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 14.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.5 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-34.91506,-57.98578 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 2Eusebio Guinazu
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Julio Farias Cabello
- 5Patricio Albacete
- 6Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe(c)
- 7Pablo Matera-1.1
- 8Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Juan Imhoff+8.0
- 12Santiago Fernandez
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
- 15Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Nahuel Lobo
- 18Juan Pablo Orlandi
- 19Manuel Carizza-12.9
- 20Benjamin Macome
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Felipe Contepomi-2.0
- 23Horacio Agulla
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Liam Messam+1.5
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read(c)-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Charlie Faumuina
- 19Jeremy Thrush
- 20Steven Luatua
- 21Tawera Kerr-Barlow+2.6
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Charles Piutau
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 4 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.