New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
51 – 20
23 August 2014Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 10.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Liam Messam+1.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Charlie Faumuina
- 19Steven Luatua
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Malakai Fekitoa
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Nathan Charles
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Sam Carter
- 5Rob Simmons-1.5
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Kurtley Beale+3.5
- 11Rob Horne-3.3
- 12Matt To'omua-5.6
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14Pat McCabe
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16James Hanson
- 17Pekahou Cowan
- 18Ben Alexander-3.4
- 19Will Skelton+6.1
- 20Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Bernard Foley-0.8
- 23Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 6 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.