Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 26
15 February 2015Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 6.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Geoff Cross-3.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Rob Harley
- 7Blair Cowan
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Greig Laidlaw(c)
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 13Mark Bennett-0.3
- 14Sean Lamont+5.6
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Gordon Reid+0.3
- 18Jon Welsh
- 19Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 20Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 21Sam Hidalgo-Clyne
- 22Greig Tonks
- 23Matt Scott-5.4
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 3Aaron Jarvis
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Rhys Webb+1.9
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Liam Williams+7.7
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Scott Andrews
- 19Luke Charteris+2.1
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Mike Phillips
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23Scott Williams+3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.