Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 19
8 August 2015Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 10.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 41 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Stephen Moore(c)+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Dean Mumm+2.1
- 5James Horwill+1.4
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8David Pocock+0.9
- 9Nick Phipps-0.5
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Greg Holmes+9.7
- 19Will Skelton+6.1
- 20Ben McCalman+5.9
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Kurtley Beale+3.5
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Luke Romano+1.2
- 5Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Nehe Milner-Skudder
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 19Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Malakai Fekitoa
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.