Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 26
10 August 2019Optus Stadium, Perth
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 09:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 12.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Tolu Latu
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Rory Arnold-6.0
- 6Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Isi Naisarani
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Christian Leali'ifano
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13James O'Connor-0.2
- 14Reece Hodge
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Folau Fainga'a
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Adam Coleman
- 20Luke Jones
- 21Will Genia+2.0
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Tom Banks
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Ardie Savea-6.0
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 13Jack Goodhue
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Atu Moli
- 18Angus Ta'avao
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Matt Todd
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Ngani Laumape
- 23George Bridge
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 4 |
| 4 | Conversions | 3 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.