England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 13
4 February 2006Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 3.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Matt Stevens-0.0
- 4Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 5Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Lewis Moody+1.4
- 8Martin Corry(c)-6.2
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Charlie Hodgson-2.4
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Jamie Noon-4.5
- 14Mark Cueto+0.8
- 15Josh Lewsey
Replacements
- 16Lee Mears+2.3
- 17Julian White-1.4
- 18Simon Shaw-2.6
- 19Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 20Matt Dawson
- 21Andy Goode
- 22Tom Voyce
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2T.Rhys Thomas
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Michael Owen+2.1
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Matthew Watkins
- 13Hal Luscombe
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Gareth Thomas(c)+5.9
Replacements
- 16Mefin Davies
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Adam Jones
- 19Alix Popham+1.5
- 20Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 21Nicky Robinson
- 22Lee Byrne+0.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.