England v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
0 – 36
14 September 2007Stade de France, Saint-Denis · neutral venue
What the model says about England v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 15.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Mark Regan+1.8
- 3Matt Stevens-0.0
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Martin Corry(c)-6.2
- 7Tom Rees
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Shaun Perry
- 10Mike Catt+2.3
- 11Paul Sackey
- 12Andy Farrell
- 13Jamie Noon-4.5
- 14Josh Lewsey
- 15Jason Robinson+5.5
Replacements
- 16George Chuter
- 17Perry Freshwater
- 18Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 19Lewis Moody+1.4
- 20Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 21Peter Richards
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3BJ Botha
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Wikus van Heerden
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Francois Steyn+7.8
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 18Johann Muller+4.2
- 19Bobby Skinstad+2.3
- 20Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 21Andre Pretorius-0.7
- 22Wynand Olivier-9.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | Possession | 39.0% |
| 62.0% | Territory | 38.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 360m | Carry metres | 400m |
| 10 | Defenders beaten | 7 |
| 15 | Offloads | 6 |
| 101 | Passes | 61 |
Defence
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 57 | Tackles made | 98 |
| 8 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 75.0% | Lineout success | 93.3% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 76 | Rucks won | 40 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 6 |
Discipline
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| — | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.