New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 16
24 August 2013Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 11.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Steven Luatua
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Tom Taylor
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Charlie Faumuina
- 19Jeremy Thrush
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21Tawera Kerr-Barlow+2.6
- 22Colin Slade+2.9
- 23Charles Piutau
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4Rob Simmons-1.5
- 5James Horwill(c)+1.4
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Ben Mowen
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Matt To'omua-5.6
- 11James O'Connor-0.2
- 12Christian Leali'ifano
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14Israel Folau
- 15Jesse Mogg
Replacements
- 16Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 17Scott Sio+1.4
- 18Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 19Kane Douglas-3.4
- 20Liam Gill
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Quade Cooper+4.9
- 23Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.