England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 21
20 March 2004Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 10.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.9 mm
- Wind
- 45 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Chris Jones
- 7Richard Hill
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio(c)+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Olly Barkley
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Josh Lewsey
- 15Jason Robinson+5.5
Replacements
- 16Mark Regan+1.8
- 17Julian White-1.4
- 18Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 19Joe Worsley+4.0
- 20Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 21Mike Catt+2.3
- 22James Simpson-Daniel
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2Robin McBryde+4.3
- 3Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 4Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 5Michael Owen+2.1
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Colin Charvis(c)-5.3
- 8Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Rhys Williams
- 15Gareth Thomas+5.9
Replacements
- 16Mefin Davies
- 17Ben Evans
- 18Gareth Llewellyn
- 19Martyn Williams+5.7
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Jamie Robinson
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.